Serious Voices Warn of Growing Danger of Thermonuclear War

A trio of experts, including two former U.S. Senators, have published serious warnings about the growing danger of thermonuclear war as the Ukraine crisis remains unresolved, and both Russia and the United States modernize their strategic nuclear triad under conditions of great tension.

Ted Postol, a well-known nuclear expert, published a warning in the Sunday Boston Globe under the headline “How a nuclear near-miss in ’95 would be a disaster today.”  The article cited a 1995 missile test by Norway that the Russians detected as a possible U.S. launch of a high-altitude nuclear detonation to “blind” Russian defenses to a possible U.S. thermonuclear first strike.  Postol noted that, fortunately, in 1995, relations between Washington and Moscow were on a positive enough footing that the Russians took a second look before deciding on whether or not to launch a second strike, which would be the standard response to a genuine thermonuclear threat.  At that time, there were gaps in Russia’s radar detection system which was a factor in the near-miss.

Postol noted

Postol noted that, at the time in 1995, Russian military commanders and top political leaders took a cautious approach. Not so now. 

Postol then warned that
“On top of this, the relentless modernization of U.S. nuclear forces continues unabated.  The current situation has become so dire that only four days ago the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists decreased the time to Armageddon on their doomsday clock from five minutes to three minutes.”

Postol concluded that the United States must curb any foolish decisions that could provoke a full-scale showdown.  He recommended that NATO take a cautious approach to building up military force, drawing a line between deterrence and provocation. 

Postol concluded by calling for the U.S. and Europeans to share with Russia the specialized satellite sensor technologies that will “correct this dangerous shortfall [in Russia’s early warning system] by equaling the nuclear playing field.”

Postol’s warnings were echoed by former U.S. Senators Sam Nunn (D-Ga.) and Richard Lugar (R-Ind.), who penned a joint op-ed in yesterday’s Sunday Washington Post under the headline, “A Nuclear Rift Worth Fixing.” The two Senators authored the 1991 Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Act, which has provided American funds to assist Russia in dismantling and securing its nuclear arsenal and stockpiles of enriched uranium and plutonium for the past 24 years.  In December, the U.S. Congress de-funded the program and in response, Russia, as it had warned, cut off most nuclear security cooperation with the United States.  Nunn and Lugar warned that this is a dangerous situation.

After documenting the tremendous accomplishments of the Nunn-Lugar program, the authors called for a new approach—”a real nuclear security partnership guided by the principle of reciprocity and mutual interest.”

They concluded with a dire warning:  “Failing to cooperate in this area is a ‘lose-lose’ proposition that would damage the vital interests of both nations and vastly increase the risk of nuclear terrorism. The US and Russia must recognize the imperative to provide global leadership. The consequences of inaction are simply too great.”