Why do we survey economists’ opinions when the majority are wrong?

When it comes to the question of when (and if) the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, we’re not really sure why the media continues to report on “what economists think“.   It’s clear to anyone who is paying attention that economists are not good at making predictions, and that the consensus of economists has been consistently wrong after every FOMC meeting.

The following chart does a great job of illustrating this years’ track record of wrong-guesses.

Note the first column which shows the confidence placed in a July/August (or sooner) rate hike.  Even in March of this year, the majority of economists still expected a hike over the summer.

January 2015: 73% said before September.

During this week’s FOMC meeting the Fed “signaled” that the rate hike will be coming in September at the earliest.

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