Hong Kong Professor: Obama Threatens Nuclear War with China

Zhang Baohui, a Professor of Political Science and Director of the Centre for Asian Pacific Studies at Lingnan University in Hong Kong who has written extensively on China’s nuclear capabilities, issued a strong warning to Obama that he is provoking a conflict that could quickly become a nuclear war.

Writing in RSIS Commentary South China Sea Series Nov. 12 issue, Zhang says that when Obama sent a U.S. battleship within the 12-mile limit around China’s newly constructed islands in the South China Sea on Oct. 27,

“China did not take concrete action this time to confront the U.S. warship, [but] future such operations could gravely destabilize the South China Sea situation and even the peace and stability of the whole region. They could touch off an unintended escalation and push the two countries towards military conflict. The logic is quite obvious.

“More actions by the U.S. Navy will corner the Chinese leadership and force them to respond to perceived provocations to its national interests and power reputation. After all, the South China Sea constitutes an essential part of China’s geostrategic interests…. Further, China may feel the urge to stand firm to deter future escalation in U.S. challenges to its interests and reputation.”

Zhang quotes both Vice Adm. Yi Xiaoguang, the PLA deputy chief of staff, who said that China “will use all means necessary to defend its sovereignty” if the U.S. takes similar actions, and Gen. Fan Changlong, vice-president of the Central Military Commission of the CCP, who told PACCOM commander Adm. Harry Harris, that any future actions by the U.S. Navy could trigger accidental escalations that harm the interests of both countries.

The Chinese have since expanded military exercises in the region and released photos of sea-based strategic missiles carried on their nuclear subs, “meant to deter the U.S.,” Zhang says.

“It is highly likely,” Zhang writes,

“that U.S. decision-makers assume China would adopt a policy of inaction when facing intruding American naval vessels. This U.S. expectation is flawed, as China is a major nuclear power. When cornered, nuclear-armed states can threaten asymmetric escalation to deter an adversary from harming its key interests. The Sept. 3 military parade in Beijing revealed that China’s new generation of tactical missiles, such as the DF-26, can be nuclear-armed. Recent information also indicates that China’s air-launched long-range cruise missiles can also carry tactical nuclear warheads. Indeed, the latest photos of the JL-2 sea-based nuclear missile lifting off from the sea could be a veiled nuclear signal sent by China to deter the U.S.”

“When a crisis situation escalates and starts to involve potential nuclear scenarios…the U.S. faces the stark choice of either backing down first or facing the prospect of fighting a nuclear-armed China.”

Professor Zhang concludes that both sides must consider the worst-case scenarios. “Both China and the U.S. need to consider how their actions may lead to unintended consequences, especially unintended escalation towards military conflict…. Nobody, especially countries in the region, wants this scenario.”

Lyndon LaRouche noted that this analysis is “absolutely right,” except that such a consequence would not be “unintended” on Obama’s part; his intention is to force China and Russia to back down, or go to war.

Hong Kong Professor: Obama Threatens Nuclear War with China

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