The Most Significant Election Ever?

(Editor’s Note: Doug Casey updates readers about his take on the current crop of would-be presidents… and why he believes most Americans will vote for Trump. It was originally published on April 14th.)

It appears there are two candidates running from the left wing of the Demopublican Party (Hillary and Bernie), and two and a half from the right wing (Trump, Cruz, and Kasich). Note: The media identifies the Lefties by their first names, a friendly and personal thing, unlike the Righties.

Sanders is a lifelong government employee (like Hillary, Cruz, and Kasich). The self-declared socialist is an economically ignorant, hostile, mildly demented old man—the Democrats answer to John McCain. He gets traction by pushing the envy button effectively.

This works in a world where many are not only ignorant of economics but have a distorted set of moral principles and no respect for property rights while some others are cynically exploiting the system to become super wealthy. The machine approves of his basic principles, which are like Obama’s. But he’s probably just a bit too rabid to win a general election in 2016. Obama got in because, unlike Bernie, he seems so reasonable and nice.

I know the pundits believe Hillary will win the Dem nomination and then the election, but I don’t buy it. For one thing, she’s (correctly) seen as the Establishment personified. And in a time of widespread resentment—especially if we’re in the middle of a meltdown by November—that’s the kiss of death.

Assuming she’s not already indicted for any of a number of crimes. I’m not just talking about Benghazi and the email brouhaha, although some think that alone will sink her ship of state. Additionally, there are the persistent rumors of health issues. So, if neither Hillary nor Bernie gets the nod, who will it be? I expect the Dems will find a left wing general. Americans do love their military at the moment. Which is especially scary.

If Trump is the Republican nominee, he’ll draw attention to a long string of corruption that surrounds Hillary like a miasma, starting in 1978 with the $100,000 bribe disguised as cattle-trading profits. And her numerous friends and associates that have died suspicious deaths in years past, not the least of them Vince Foster and Ron Brown. And her abetting Bill’s sleazy rape episodes with lower-middle-class bimbos. And persistent rumors (which I tend to credit) that she’s an aggressive lesbian.

These things aren’t going to help her. Nor will the fact she’s a woman automatically help her with other women. To believe that is to believe that women are less perceptive than men. In fact, they tend to be shrewder at reading personalities. And Hillary’s personality traits scream “liar,” fraud,” and “dishonest.”

What about Cruz? His shifty, beady, squinty little eyes speak of duplicity. He seems to be a genuinely dislikable person, which itself is the kiss of death in an election. Elections, after all, have very little to do with ideology; they’re really just popularity/personality contests among the hoi polloi. He’s a borderline religious fanatic, a Christian version of the type of Muslim imams that really scare people. He’s a genuine warmonger. And his wife, an ex-Goldman partner, an ex-Condi Rice counselor, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations is exactly the kind of Deep State person that voters are rejecting and despise. He may have beaten Trump in a few Heartland states with big fundamentalist populations, but even the tone-deaf management of the Republican Party will see that he’s a complete non-starter in a general election.

Kasich? A lifelong politician, with nine terms as a congress critter, a stint as a governor, and one as a managing director of Lehman Brothers when it failed. These are the opposite of qualifiers in today’s world. He’s on the conventional statist side of almost every important issue—guns, global warming, drugs, medical care, and civil liberties. He’s about as dangerous as Hillary or Cruz when it comes to involving the U.S. in foreign adventures. He’s getting traction only because he seems low-key and “reasonable”—a Republican Obama. My guess is that the Deep State will try to give him the Rep nomination. After all, anyone but Trump…

So let’s look at Trump. I’m not a fan, per se, and I explained why at length here. But in October, I said I thought he was going to go all the way. I’ll explain why below. It’s not because I believe polls, or pundits, or keep my finger on the pulse of the capita censi (i.e., those who inhabit the ghettos, barrios, and trailer parks of the U.S.).

Why is Trump as popular as he is? Two reasons. First, he’s outspoken and politically incorrect. He doesn’t read from a script, like all the others. He says what his supporters are thinking, things that no other public figure is willing to say. Second, he’s not part of the Establishment, the Deep State. He’s the only candidate that’s not a professional politician. These are simple things but extremely important characteristics for this election, which is going to take place during a social and economic hurricane.

By the time November rolls around, however, three other qualities will come to the fore, and they’ll be even more important.

First, he’s a businessman and therefore presumed to know how to make things work. People, at least those who aren’t Democrats, don’t want a politico. They know politicos are just about lies and self-dealing. What most people will want in the face of a collapsing economy is somebody who has credentials saying they’re competent to kiss things and make them better. A truth teller who says that the U.S. is in trouble and thinks markets are overpriced. Someone whose slogan is “Make America Great Again!”

Second, he projects certainty. In times of fear and confusion, which is what I expect in six months, certainty trumps everything in a public figure. No other candidate even comes close. A man who exudes certainty gets the confidence of voters.

Third, the Establishment hates him. Despite all the free press he gets, practically all pundits and public figures loathe him. They label him as an unqualified, irresponsible, dangerous clown and a reality show star. But since the general public now despises the Establishment in general and the media, in particular, this will help him, not hurt him.

P.S. Here’s Some Full Disclosure

You may be wondering, having said all this, if I will vote for Trump. The answer is: no. He’s an authoritarian, not a libertarian. He’s got only a marginal grip on either economic freedom or social freedom, and he says lots of stupid things that he may actually believe. That said, I still signed up for my friend Walter Block’s Libertarians for Trump movement. Why? Partly because he’s vastly less scary than any other candidate. And he’s certainly the least likely to start World War 3—which is actually the biggest risk with any president.

So why won’t I vote for him? Longtime subscribers are aware that I don’t choose to be complicit in crimes, including national elections. I give five reasons why you, too, should consider opting out. But I hope Trump wins. Not just because he’s actually the least warlike but because he’s the only candidate who’s not a puppet on a string. He stands a chance of upturning the Deep State’s apple cart and spilling all the rotten apples it carries. A small chance, perhaps, but probably the only chance.

Could he succeed in doing it? Unlikely, but it’s important someone try. He’d be no more likely to succeed than Ron Paul if he’d won the last election. As I pointed out then, anyone who steps out of line would first get a sit-down with the heads of the praetorian agencies and a bunch of generals. They’d politely, but firmly, explain the way things work. Failing that, Congress would impeach him. Failing that, I expect he’d meet with an unfortunate accident.

In conclusion, you can put the Rolling Stone’s “Street Fighting Man” on a continuous loop to replace the audio whenever you watch the news. I expect a long, hot, violent summer. That’s somewhat counterintuitive, in view of the fact that the American public is more apathetic than ever.

Apathy and ignorance. How else to explain their complacency at getting 0% on their savings? How better to explain that they’re more driven by fear than ever, evidenced by so many things, from the acceptance of “helicopter parenting,” to the bizarre hysteria over practically non-existent terrorism. Americans seem like zombies in many ways. Maybe that’s because something like 25% of the population are on medically prescribed psychoactives, like Ritalin, Prozac, Ambien, and scores of others. And even more are addicted to sugar, alcohol, overeating, recreational drugs, and Kardashian-style TV. Even so, as Ferguson, Missouri, proved last year, they’re still capable of rioting.

America, which was much more a concept than a place, is long gone. What’s left of the white middle class correctly feel they’re losing what’s left of the U.S. Their children are being both bankrupted and corrupted by politically correct schooling. To them, the society appears to have been captured by gender feminism, LGBT preferences, and racial quotas. And I’d say they’re basically right.

That’s why, even if they won’t admit it out loud, most Americans (hard-core Democrats excepted, of course), will vote for Trump.

Hold on to your hat.

Reprinted with permission from Doug Casey’s International Man.

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