Mad, Mad, Mad, MAD World: News in Charts

Global Outlook – Mad, Mad, Mad, MAD World: News in Charts

by Fathom Consulting via Thomson Reuters

Alarm bells are ringing for economic fundamentalists such as Fathom Consulting.

Asset prices look increasingly out of step with fundamentals, and in some cases they look downright bubbly. And other geopolitical developments are similarly alarming. One might even describe them as…

Mad:

Equity prices in developed economies, and specifically in the US, are more than one standard deviation higher than their long-run average in relation to nominal GDP.

Mad:

The Nasdaq has again played its part, posting an even greater degree of fundamental overvaluation than the S&P 500. Its degree of overvaluation in relation to nominal GDP is now close to its dotcom bubble high.

Mad:

Government bond prices across the developed world are at all-time highs. Bond prices have been increasing consistently since the 1980s, with a series of global shocks driving that move.

Total central bank assets across the developed world now stand at over $14 trillion, having increased by about $10 trillion since the recession.

Over the same period, the new issuance of government debt has increased dramatically right across the G5. All else the same, you would expect such an increase in government debt to result in higher government bond yields (lower prices).

However, short rates have fallen to the lower bound and QE has been introduced, mopping up almost all of the value of new issuance of government debt across the major developed economies. It is no surprise, therefore, that the price of government bonds has increased over the same period, by around 18%.