Author: Bill Bonner

POITOU, FRANCE – Guess what U.S. stocks did yesterday… They went up, of course. Just like they always do. Some people have expressed wonder… and doubt… that the equity value of America’s businesses can increase so much even while national leadership is in so much disarray. Republicans can’t work with Democrats. Democrats can’t work with the president. And Republicans can’t work with the president, either… or each other. Together… they can’t work at all. Primary Trend At the start of the year, analysts explained stock market gains as a “reflation trade.” Buy Silver at Discounted Prices The idea was that … Continue reading →

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BALTIMORE – Victoribus spolia… So far, the most satisfying thing about the Trump win has been the howls and whines coming from the establishment. Each appointment – some good, some bad from our perspective – has brought forth such heavy lamentations. You’d think Washington had been invaded by Goths, now raping the vestal virgins (if there are any within the Beltway) on the White House lawns while the Capitol burns to the ground. Regret and Suffering Trump is happening, of course. And the very people who made it happen are now in various stages of regret… suffering… or hysteria. What … Continue reading →

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LOVINGSTON, VIRGINIA – Amid all the sound and fury of the Trump news cycle, hardly anyone noticed. There is a specter haunting this economy. It is the specter of inflation… Exterminating Angel Bloomberg has the report: The U.S. cost of living increased in January by the most since February 2013, led by higher costs for gasoline and other goods and services that indicate inflation is gathering momentum. Why are the most advertised Gold and Silver coins NOT the best way to invest? The consumer-price index rose a larger-than-forecast 0.6% after a 0.3% gain in December, Labor Department figures showed Wednesday. … Continue reading →

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Inside Track The stock market – where shares in profit-making companies are exchanged – went up again on Friday. Does this mean the outlook for making money is improving? Does this presage higher dividends for the stockholders? What, exactly, do investors expect? Partisan politics is for the most part a distraction, maintaining the illusion of choice for the public. Illustration by Ana Vlajcevic More of the same, is our guess. Hillary in her Heaven. Yellen on her throne. And now, Fed Governor Lael Brainard is said to have the inside track for the top job at the Department of the … Continue reading →

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OUZILLY, France – First, some travel advice… A niece was visiting from North Carolina. She left this morning for Paris. We warned her, “Paris is the biggest tourist draw in the world. Naturally, it also has a thriving industry that preys on tourists. “People will come up to you and say: ‘Do you speak English?’ You’ll be eager to help them. Just say ‘non,’ and keep walking. Or they’ll pretend to find a gold ring on the sidewalk, just behind you. They’ll ask if it is yours. Just keep walking. “Watch out for gypsies. They work in groups. One will … Continue reading →

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BALTIMORE – Last Thursday, the Brits said auf Wiedersehen and au revoir to the European Union. On Friday, the Dow sold off 611 points – a roughly 3.5% slump. What’s going on? Dying Order In Europe and the U.S., the masses are getting restless. Mr. Guy Wroble of Denver, Colorado, explained why in a short letter to the Financial Times: The old liberal world order is dying because the cost-benefit ratio for the average person in the Western world is now negative. The welfare state depends on three things: population growth, productivity growth, and credit growth. All three are either … Continue reading →

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PARIS – Paris was calm last night. We walked across the River Seine… Pausing to take this photo of the Eiffel Tower along the way. We were living in Paris in 2003 when President George W. Bush and his team decided to attack Iraq. Our misgivings were recorded in the Daily Reckoning e-letter we were writing at the time. As we put it: The U.S. invasion was arguably the best thing that ever happened to jihadists. It challenged them. It forced them to grow and adapt. Like an oversupply of antibiotics in a New Delhi hospital, U.S. interference has wiped … Continue reading →

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They that sow the wind, shall reap the whirlwind. – Hosea, 8-7 PARIS – We drove back into Paris last night…France is still in a state of emergency. A police blockade near Dreux stopped cars headed out of the city.There were about 20 gendarmes manning the barrier, some armed with machine guns. Police shined flashlights into passing cars, pulling over those they wanted to inspect more closely. A City on Edge This morning, in our favorite café at the foot of Rue Poussin, in the 16th arrondissement, everyone drinks his coffee and eats his croissant while watching the big TV … Continue reading →

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Through the door there came familiar laughter I saw your face and heard you call my name Oh, my friend we’re older but no wiser For in our hearts the dreams are still the same Those were the days . – “Those Were the Days” by Gene Raskin POITOU, France – Yes, they were good years… 1980-2015. We laughed. We cried. We got married. We raised children. We bought houses. We made money.Whose life has not been improved since the end of the 1970s? Reagan’s “Morning in America.” Then the Clinton Years. Finally, George W. Bush’s “Fin de Bubble” era. … Continue reading →

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FRANKFURT, Germany – Nothing much to report from the stock market yesterday. Investors are regaining their calm. A few weeks ago, it looked as though the end of the world had begun. We are talking, of course, about the world in which credit, stocks, and central bank reputations only go up. But after a big fright in August, investors recovered their relaxed madness. They concluded that there was nothing to worry about. They may be right. You never know. But our guess is that the end of the world has already begun… and they just can’t face it. Disappearing Growth … Continue reading →

13ATHENS – We’re back in Greece now. On Friday, we took a tour of the ruins of Ephesus. It was to the small Christian community here that St. Paul directed so many of his letters. It was here, too, where Mary is said to have lived out her life after the crucifixion. After visiting the House of Mary, and marching up and down over the tumbled stones of the Roman-era city, we took the bus back to Kuşadasi (next to Ephesus on the western Aegean coast of Turkey). There, our group of amateur archaeologists and retired doctors was invited to … Continue reading →

SYRACUSE, Sicily – “When in doubt, go to Italy” is the saying. We are always in doubt. What better place to go? Today, a warning about why a global recession is now likely. But first, an update on Sicily… where we’ve spent the last few days exploring. Sicily is not exactly Italy. It sits in the middle of the Mediterranean, where every sleepy sailor or ambitious empire builder was bound to wash up. The Phoenicians, Greeks, Carthaginians, Romans, Byzantines, Arabs, Normans, Spanish, and French – all tried their hands at ruling Sicily. The Italians are only the most recent of … Continue reading →

ROME – What are we doing in Rome? We’ll tell you Monday. That will give us time to figure it out… In the meantime, remember: Cash is king. It’s one of the best-performing major asset classes this year. (More on that below in today’s Market Insight…) It’s also – by far – the safest. Even billionaire investor Carl Icahn is now urging investors to get into cash. Cash will someday disappoint us. But probably not today… or tomorrow. The War on Cash But the authorities don’t like cash… As we’ve been warning Bill Bonner Letter readers, the feds have a … Continue reading →

PARIS – We took the Eurostar train back to Paris from London last night. In our wagon was a group of Chinese businessmen. Drinking, laughing… they were a bit uncouth by European standards. But they were having a good time. While we were in London, the cabbies were remonstrating against something – ride-sharing app Uber, we suppose. A dozen cabs must have passed before one stopped to pick us up on our way to St. Pancras railway station. Arriving at the Gare du Nord, we feared something similar. We’ve never seen a line of people we wanted to join. The … Continue reading →

PARIS – Volkswagen CEO “falls on his sword,” reports the Financial Times. The FT was speaking metaphorically, of course. Martin Winterkorn is German, after all, not Japanese. A Japanese businessman in a similar circumstance would have his intestines on the floor by now. An Innocent Crime? Volkswagen supplies motor vehicles to the world – millions of machines that work at least as well as any other. We have one of its small diesel pickup trucks at the ranch in Argentina. It serves us well. Volkswagen employs 600,000 engineers, machinists, accountants, metallurgists… and hundreds of other métiers… all gainfully working in … Continue reading →