“If his poll numbers hold, Trump will be there six months from now when the Sweet 16 is cut to the Final Four, and he will likely be in the finals.” My prediction, in July of 2015, looks pretty good right now. Herewith, a second prediction. Republican wailing over his prospective nomination aside, Donald Trump could beat Hillary Clinton like a drum in November. Indeed, only the fear that Trump can win explains the hysteria in this city. Here is The Washington Post of March 18: “As a moral question it is straightforward. The mission of any responsible Republican should … Continue reading

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Friday evening’s Donald Trump rally in Chicago was broken up by a foul-mouthed mob that infiltrated the hall and forced the cancelation of the event to prevent violence and bloodshed. Brownshirt tactics worked. The mob, triumphant, rejoiced. And the reaction of Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and John Kasich? All three Republican rivals blamed — Donald Trump. With his “dangerous style of leadership,” Trump stokes this anger, mewed Rubio, “This is what happens when a leading presidential candidate goes around feeding into a narrative of bitterness and anger and frustration.” Rubio implies that if Trump doesn’t tone down his remarks to … Continue reading

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Over the long weekend before the Mississippi and Michigan primaries, the sky above Sea Island was black with corporate jets. Apple’s Tim Cook, Google’s Larry Page and Eric Schmidt, Napster’s Sean Parker, Tesla Motors’ Elon Musk, and other members of the super-rich were jetting into the exclusive Georgia resort, ostensibly to participate in the annual World Forum of the American Enterprise Institute. Among the advertised topics of discussion: “Millennials: How Much Do They Matter and What Do They Want?” That was the cover story. As revealed by the Huffington Post, Sea Island last weekend was host to a secret conclave … Continue reading

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Narrow victories in the Kentucky caucuses and the Louisiana primary, the largest states decided on Saturday, have moved Donald Trump one step nearer to the nomination. Primaries in Michigan, Mississippi and Idaho on March 8, and in Florida, Ohio, Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina on March 15, may prove decisive. If Marco Rubio does not win his home state of Florida, he is cooked, as is Gov. John Kasich if he does not win Ohio. Ted Cruz already looks to be the last man between Trump and a GOP nomination that has gone, in the last seven elections, to George … Continue reading

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Donald Trump “appeals to racism.” “[F]rom the beginning … his campaign has profited from voter prejudice and hatred” and represents an “authoritarian assault upon democracy.” If Speaker Paul Ryan wishes to be “on the right side of history … he must condemn Mr. Trump clearly and comprehensively. The same goes for every other Republican leader.” “Maybe that would split the (Republican) party,” but, “No job is worth the moral stain that would come from embracing (Trump). No party is worth saving at the expense of the country.” If Republican leaders wish to be regarded as moral, every one of them … Continue reading

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The first four Republican contests — Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada — produced record turnouts. While the prospect of routing Hillary Clinton and recapturing the White House brought out the true believers, it was Donald Trump’s name on the ballot and his calls for economic patriotism, border security, and an end to imperial wars that brought out the throngs. The crowds that continue to come out for his appearances and the vast audiences he has attracted to GOP debates testify to his drawing power. Moreover, Trump has now been endorsed by Gov. Chris Christie, ex-chairman of the Republican … Continue reading

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In a Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump race — which, the Beltway keening aside, seems the probable outcome of the primaries — what are the odds the GOP can take the White House, Congress, and the Supreme Court? If Republicans can unite, not bad, not bad at all. Undeniably, Democrats open with a strong hand. There is that famed “blue wall,” those 18 states and D.C. with a combined 242 electoral votes, just 28 shy of victory, that have gone Democratic in every presidential election since 1988. The wall contains all of New England save New Hampshire; the Acela corridor … Continue reading

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It is a measure of the stature and the significance of Justice Antonin Scalia that, upon the news of his death at a hunting lodge in Texas, Washington was instantly caught up in an unseemly quarrel over who would succeed him. But no one can replace Justice Scalia. He was a giant among jurists. For a third of a century, he led the conservative wing of the high court, creating a new school of judicial thought called “originalism.” But originalism is not conservatism, which, in the judicial era that preceded Scalia, often meant court decisions that “conserved” the radical social … Continue reading

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If you believed America’s longest war, in Afghanistan, was coming to an end, be advised: It is not. Departing U.S. commander Gen. John Campbell says there will need to be U.S. boots on the ground “for years to come.” Making good on President Obama’s commitment to remove all U.S. forces by next January, said Campbell, “would put the whole mission at risk.” “Afghanistan has not achieved an enduring level of security and stability that justifies a reduction of our support. … 2016 could be no better and possibly worse than 2015.” Translation: A U.S. withdrawal would risk a Taliban takeover … Continue reading

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The morning of the New Hampshire primary, Donald Trump, being interviewed on “Morning Joe,” said that he would welcome his “friend” Michael Bloomberg into the presidential race. Which is probably the understatement of 2016. The three-term mayor of New York and media mogul whose fortune is estimated at $39 billion, making him one of the richest men on earth, told the Financial Times on Monday he is considering a run. Bloomberg had earlier confided he was worried about Hillary Clinton’s ability to turn back the challenge of Bernie Sanders, regards Trump’s rise with trepidation, and is appalled by the pedestrian … Continue reading

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Donald Trump won more votes in the Iowa caucuses than any Republican candidate in history. Impressive, except Ted Cruz set the new all-time record. And Marco Rubio exceeded all expectations by taking 23 percent. Cruz won Tea Party types, Evangelicals, and the hard right. Trump won the populists and nationalists who want the borders secure, no amnesty, and no more trade deals that enable rival powers like China to disembowel American industries. And Rubio? He is what columnist Mark Shields called Jimmy Carter, 35 years ago, “the remainderman of national politics. He gets what’s left over after his opponents have … Continue reading

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Whoever wins the nominations, the most successful campaigns of 2016 provide us with a clear picture of where the center of gravity is today in both parties and, hence, where America is going. Bernie Sanders, with his mammoth crowds and mass support among the young, represents, as did George McGovern in 1972, despite his defeat, the future of the Democratic Party. That Hillary Clinton has been tacking left tells you Sanders is winning the argument. Should she avoid indictment in the email scandal, and win the nomination and the election, Clinton would be a placeholder president. Yet, should Sanders win … Continue reading

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The conservative movement is starting to look a lot like Syria. Baited, taunted, mocked by Fox News, Donald Trump told Roger Ailes what he could do with his Iowa debate, and marched off to host a Thursday night rally for veterans at the same time in Des Moines. Message: I speak for the silent majority, Roger, not you, not Megyn Kelly, not Fox News. Diss me, and I will do fine without Fox. And so the civil-sectarian war on the right widens and deepens. And two questions arise: Will the conservative movement and Republican Party unite behind Trump if he … Continue reading

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With the Iowa caucuses a week away, the front-runner for the Republican nomination, who leads in all the polls, is Donald Trump. The consensus candidate of the Democratic Party elite, Hillary Clinton, has been thrown onto the defensive by a Socialist from Vermont who seems to want to burn down Wall Street. Not so long ago, Clinton was pulling down $225,000 a speech from Goldman Sachs. Today, she sounds like William Jennings Bryan. Taken together, the candidacies of Trump, Sanders, Ben Carson and Ted Cruz represent a rejection of the establishment. And, imitation being the sincerest form of flattery, other … Continue reading

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At the World Economic Forum, keynoter Joe Biden warned global elites that the unraveling of the middle class in America and Europe has provided “fertile terrain for reactionary politicians, demagogues peddling xenophobia, anti-immigration, nationalist, isolationist views.” Evidence of a nationalist backlash, said Biden, may be seen in the third parties arising across Europe, and in the U.S. primaries. But set aside Joe’s slurs — demagogues, xenophobia. Who really belongs in the dock here? Who caused this crisis of political legitimacy now gripping the nations of the West? Was it Donald Trump, who gives voice to the anger of those who … Continue reading

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