Ceasefire Comes into Effect in Southeast Ukraine But Remains Under Threat

By all accounts, the ceasefire in southeast Ukraine, called for in the Feb. 12 Minsk agreement, came into force at midnight, local time, though not without violations charged to both sides. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko made a big deal of going on TV, dressed in the uniform of the national commander of the armed forces, to announce that he was issuing the order to the regime’s forces to cease fire, though he was still “alarmed” at the situation in Debaltsevo.

Vladislav Seleznev, spokesman for the Kiev regime’s special operations headquarters, told reporters that there had been no shelling registered since 3 AM, local time, and that the ceasefire had generally been holding. He said there was some shelling in the areas of Chernukhino and Zolotoye, but it was not systematic.

Eduard Basurin, military spokesman for the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), generally agreed, adding that certain violations of the truce regime were seen near Debaltsevo. Earlier, officials of both of the breakaway republics said they had issued orders to their forces to stop operations at midnight. “In accordance with the Minsk agreements’ implementation measures, LPR stopped hostilities starting from 00:00 hours, Sunday, Kiev time,” head of the Luhansk People’s Republic Council of Ministers Gennady Tsyplakov said.

“The DPR militia forces, fulfilling the DPR head’s order, ceased fire at 00:00 hours, Kiev time, from all types of weapons,” Basurin said. “DPR militia forces, strictly fulfilling the DPR head’s order, shall comply with the silence regime throughout the zone of responsibility of DPR militia units.”

According to new reports, the guns largely fell silent all along the line of contact between the two sides, with the possible exception of Debaltsevo, where thousands of Ukrainian troops remain trapped by DPR forces, and where heavy fighting continued right up until the ceasefire deadline. DPR leader Alexander Zakharchenko has been widely quoted in the press, particularly by the New York Times and by Reuters, saying that the DPR won’t stop fighting in Debaltsevo unless the Ukrainian troops trapped there surrender. “We will block all attempts to break out,” he said. “I have given the order.” The Times also reports, however, that residents of Donetsk and Mariupol reached by phone reported that there was silence. Meanwhile, Sputnik reports that a statement published by Right Sector leader Dmitry Yarosh, that two of his battalions were still fighting in Debaltsevo, disappeared from the National Guard website shortly after.

On the political/diplomatic/strategic level, the OSCE issued a statement, Saturday, reporting that the trilateral contact group had held video conferences involving the DPR/LPR representatives.

“Issues of the practical implementation of the ‘Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements,’ adopted in Minsk on 12 February 2015, were discussed during the consultations,” they said. “Particular emphasis was placed on full respect of provisions concerning the ceasefire, which should be strictly implemented from 15 February 2015 at 00.00 hours Kiev time, as well as the withdrawal of heavy weapons, as agreed in the Package of Measures. It was agreed that all actors will undertake all necessary measures aimed at achieving the above objectives and the speedy de-escalation of ongoing hostilities in the conflict zone, in particular in the vicinity of the towns of Debaltsevo and Mariupol, which have seen the heaviest fighting in recent days.”

The Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement, Saturday, warning that the Kiev regime and the U.S. might distort the contents of the Minsk agreement.

In a telephone call with Poroshenko, Saturday, President Obama expressed his “deep concern about the ongoing violence, particularly in and around Debaltseve.” The White House said in a statement that the two leaders “emphasized the pressing need” for all parties to implement the ceasefire and agreed to remain in contact in the coming days. German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said failure to maintain the peace would cost the region and the people of eastern Ukraine “a high price,” reports the London Independent.

“If we miss this opportunity, the chance to defuse the serious conflict in eastern Ukraine by way of negotiations will be gone for a long time,”

Steinmeier said. Poroshenko announced, Saturday, he was prepared to impose martial law on the entire country, should the ceasefire agreement collapse.

“Even before Minsk… I warned that we will have to, if there is no peace, take a very difficult but necessary decision to introduce martial law,” he said.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is still trying to sabotage the whole deal. Victoria Nuland’s partner in crime in installing the Nazi regime in Kiev, U.S. Ambassador Geoffrey Pyatt, tweeted out a satellite image, Saturday, which he claimed showed Russian artillery—not DPR artillery—firing on the regime’s forces in the Debaltsevo area. The responses posted below Pyatt’s tweet suggest that such “evidence” provided by the U.S. has very little credibility. The U.S. Ambassador to the OSCE, Dan Baer, and the U.S. NATO mission also tweeted the image and two other images. “Russian military not separatist, RU military deployed [weapons] around Debaltseve where it is shelling [ukrainian] positions,” Baer wrote.