The Agreement in Minsk

The “Normandy Four” — Presidents Vladimir Putin of Russia, Petro Poroshenko of Ukraine, Francois Hollande of France, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel — who first met on the Ukraine crisis in Normandy last June, worked in Minsk last night for 17 hours, accompanied by their foreign ministers and other negotiators, to reach an interim agreement on stopping the escalation of bloodshed and a strategic showdown in eastern Ukraine.

A ten-point agreement titled “A Set of Measures for Implementation of the Minsk Accords,” referring to the Contact Group agreement reached last September, but only partially implemented, was signed not by the four, but by the members of the Contact Group: Donetsk and Lugansk Peoples Republics leaders Alexander Zakharchenko and Leonid Plotnitsky, Russian Ambassador to Ukraine Mikhail Zurabov, Ukrainian ex-President Leonid Kuchma, and OSCE Special Representative Heidi Tagliavini. This group simultaneously met through the night at another location in Minsk, with Tagliavini, as well as Kremlin aide Vladislav Surkov, shuttling between the two meetings. Putin told the press in the morning that the length of the talks had been caused by Poroshenko’s refusal to negotiate directly with the DPR/LPR leaders, while Merkel said to journalists that Putin’s pressure on the latter had been crucial in reaching any agreement at all.

The accord provides for a ceasefire in the Donetsk and Lugansk Regions, starting at midnight, Feb. 14-15. Artillery and other heavy weaponry are to be pulled back sufficiently to create a minimum 50-km safe zone; the Kiev forces are to pull back from the current line of engagement and the DPR/LPR militias from the demarcation line of Sept. 2014. The OSCE assumes “monitoring” functions. There is a commitment to “dialogue on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine ‘On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Lugansk Regions’,” followed by talks on the future of these regions.

There are provisions for amnesties and prisoner exchanges, as well as humanitarian aid to the Donbass. Kiev commits to restoring wages, pensions, and banking system function in these areas, while it is supposed to gain “full control over the state border,” including between the DPR/LPR and Russia, after the elections and after constitutional reform in Ukraine, “the key element of which is decentralization” and a “special status” for the Donetsk and Lugansk Regoins — all by the end of this year. All foreign fighters, “mercenaries,” and their weapons are to be pulled out of Ukraine.

After the talks, the four heads of state spoke to the press separately, raising concerns that they had differing interpretations of the accord from the very start. Later in the day Thursday, however, the declaration by the four titled “Declaration in Support of the Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements Approved in Minsk on February 12, 2015” was published. They state “full respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine” (with no mention of Crimea), and express their commitment “to undertake all possible individual and joint measures to this end.”

The declaration specifies that Germany and France will provide technical expertise for restoring the banking system, and states that the four leaders “share the conviction that improved cooperation between the EU, Ukraine and Russia will be conducive to settlement of the crisis settlement,” for which there are to be continued three-way talks between the EU, Ukraine and Russia on energy issues, as well as concerns related to Ukraine’s Association Agreement with the EU. The Declaration also includes a formulation on commitment to “a joint humanitarian and economic space from the Atlantic to the Pacific, based upon full respect for international law and the principles of the OSCE.”

Putin’s remarks indicated uncertainty about the situation around Debaltsevo, the railway junction between Donetsk and Lugansk where up to eight thousand Kiev troops may have been trapped. He said that Ukraine refused to recognize that this was the case, leading to unclarity about the ceasefire and the lines of demarcation. According to reports from both sides, the Russian and Ukrainian Armed Forces chiefs of staff were to be in contact Thursday on making a professional determination of the situation there. For his part, DPR leader Zakharchenko said that if Kiev violates this accord, there will be no further talks.