Two Excellent Reports On China’s New Silk Road Initiatives from the West

Two reports on Xi Jinping’s New Silk Road initiative were released in the U.S. recently which competently and forcefully capture the transformation taking place in China and the impact on the future, one from a former U.S. intelligence official and one from a former French Defense Ministry advisor who now works at the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) in Seattle

Flynt Leverett, a former CIA and NSC official who has done battle with the Bush-leaguers over the need to negotiate with Iran, wrote a paper with his wife Hillary Mann called “China Looks West: What Is At Stake in Beijing’s ‘New Silk Road’ Project,” published on the Ron Paul Institute website on Jan. 28 (both Leveretts are board members of the RPI).

On Feb. 12, Nadege Rolland published his article, “China’s New Silk Road,” on the NBR website. Both present the concept as Xi Jinping’s contribution to restoring China’s pre-colonial role as a “prosperous, strong, culturally advanced and harmonious country,” as Xi has stated it. They review the “One Belt, One Road” concept — the rail and infrastructure projects through Central Asia to the Gulf and to Europe, and the Maritime Silk Road through the Indian Ocean on into Europe through the Suez Canal. They emphasize the grand scale of the projects, encompassing the majority of the world’s population.

Both also identify the potential problems confronting the New Silk Road — the growth of terrorist networks in Xinjiang and the ties to the al-Qaeda networks along the Belt and Road; the potential conflict with Russia over influence in the former Soviet states; and the Obama Administration “pivot” to Asia, which threatens both military and economic confrontation with China. As Leverett writes,

“the Sino-American rapprochement in the 1970s required Washington to abandon a failed quest for Asian hegemony. Now, the U.S. appears to be backing away from these commitments and looking for ways to reassert a more traditionally hegemonic stance in Asia.”

It is refreshing, in this light, to see Western analysts present China’s serious efforts to meet these difficulties peacefully, through cooperative development proposals rather than confrontation. On the Uighur tensions, writes Rolland,

“Bejing firmly believes that the political and ethnic tensions in Xinjiang can be attenuated by economic development and for this reason has been investing massively in the local economy and infrastructure.”

On Russia, Rolland writes, China is bound to encounter Russia as it moves into the former Soviet states in Central Asia.

“But instead of creating friction, the proposed new Silk Road is intended to create more cooperation between Beijing and Moscow.”

Rolland also addresses the “geopolitical” issue — China sees that the U.S. confrontation comes from the sea, and also notes the “Malacca dilemma” — the fact that most imports from Europe and Africa must pass through the Malacca Strait.

“The fear of a maritime blockade imposed by the U.S. in the event of a conflict in East Asia has led Chinese thinkers to look for ways to bypass sea lanes subject to U.S. naval dominance,” noting that China has “historically given priority to its landmass at the expense of maritime expansion.”

Rolland closes:

“If China succeeds in linking itself more closely to Russia, Central Asia, Eastern Europe and the Middle East, then U.S. policymakers may be compelled to radically alter their traditional approaches to these regions and indeed the entire world.”