Saudi Purge Escalates War Danger

A further Saudi shake-up is signalling plans to escalate against Assad in Syria. Crown Prince Muqrin was dumped from the succession, moving up Prince Mohammed bin-Nayef to Crown Prince, and Prince Mohammed bin-Salman to deputy crown prince. This puts the succession in the hands of the Suderi faction of the Royal Family, for decades to come.

This strengthens hardcore Wahhabi and pro-Al Qaeda factions in the Royal Family. The Saudis are now aligned with Turkey and Qatar to focus on the overthrow of Assad—in alliance with the Al Nusra Front, the Al Qaeda group in Syria. This puts this alliance at odds with the Pentagon over Syria. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) leaders come to DC and Camp David May 13-14.

Egypt and Pakistan refused “boots on the ground” for Yemen and also for Syria, which is a big deal and a big problem for the Saudis. The Pentagon argues that Syria could become another Libya if Assad is overthrown with Al Qaeda and ISIS running loose, and they strongly oppose the plans recently consolidated in talks between King Salman and Turkish President Erdogan, to escalate the drive to oust Assad through fresh infusions of funds and arms, to pass from Saudi intelligence to Turkish intelligence to the rebels, including the Al Qaeda forces of ANF. Obama wants to placate the Saudis by supporting continuing bombing in Yemen, even though the Saudis are unable to defeat the Houthis.

All told, the entire region, as per British plans, is careening out of control towards war. The suddenness of the Saudi purge (Crown Prince Muqrin opposed the Yemen war) is just the latest indication of the flight forward towards confrontation.