Bank Holidays, Bail-ins, & Full Capital Controls: Greece on the Precipice
I am of the opinion that some of the Greek banks will not open Monday and those that remain open will shut down with a day of opening or at least by June 30. The ECB and IMF are looking at June 30 as the absolutely deadline for full on default, no concealing it any more.
The ELA must protect its position and will likely order a bank holiday and full on capital controls because the bank deposits are now less than what is owned. Collateral is going to be worth ZERO in short order as a Greek default shoots rates to 50-90% on 2 year bonds, just like the last time Greece took the haircut that avoided a full default 2 years ago.
This will precipitate a bail-in as the ELA, along with the troika, will demand full deposit theft to protect this 100 billion euro assets still within reach. Bank holiday will give the troika and ELA provisions time to extract everything they can reach in these accounts. If the Greek central bank does not nationalize the banks sometime between Sunday and Wednesday, the banks will fail and crash, throwing the entire system into chaos.
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