New York Times Says U.S. May Send Heavy Weapons to Baltics

The Sunday New York Times reported yesterday that the Pentagon is preparing plans to send heavy weapons, including battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles to the Baltic states and other former Soviet and Warsaw Pact states that are now in NATO.  This prepositioning of U.S. combat equipment would include limited U.S. military personnel to secure and maintain the equipment, in what would amount to a “tripwire” for a fullscale conflict between NATO and Russia.  During the height of the Cold War, such “tripwire” deployments in Europe were common—but they were restricted to continental Western Europe.

The Times noted that the Pentagon draft proposal, involving the prepositioning of enough equipment to service a brigade— 3-5,000 troops—still has to be approved by the Secretary of Defense and the President.  But the proposal has already been presented to senior policy-makers and is expected to be finalized before the NATO defense ministers meet in Brussels later this month.

The planned “tripwire” deployment must be seen in the context of the threat that the U.S. could resume deployment of nuclear-armed intermediate range missiles in Europe, on the pretext that Russia has violated the INF Treaty.  A token U.S. forward deployment of military hardware in the three Baltic states, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, and possibly Hungary, would do nothing to stop an actual Russian invasion; however, it could mean direct conflict between Russian and American forces.  Any such incident would lead to a rapid escalation to thermonuclear conflict.

According to the Times, the prepositioning plans involve as many as 1,200 vehicles, including 250 M1-A2 tanks, Bradley Fighting Vehicles, and armored howitzers.  Such a deployment would be a clear violation of the 1997 NATO-Russia agreement that included a pledge that there would be no NATO build-up of force in Eastern Europe, based on the understanding that NATO and Russia were no longer adversaries.

During his visit to Italy this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin made clear that Russia has no plans to attack any NATO country. “I think that only an insane person and only in a dream can imagine that Russia would suddenly attack NATO.  I think some countries are simply taking advantage of people’s fears with regard to Russia,” he told Corriere della Serra.