How Russia Moved into Syria
Michael Kofman, of the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute, in a lengthy analysis published on the blog War on the Rocks, characterizes the Russian move in Syria as a “flanking maneuver, leveraging military and diplomatic power,” intended to force the US to change course. Kofman writes:
“When the United States cut a deal with Turkey in late July to establish a no-fly zone, using Incirlik air base to conduct strikes in Northern Syria, Russia probably viewed it with deep suspicion…Moscow remembers what happened during the 2011 intervention in Libya, which it views as a demonstration of how American no-fly zones can become regime-change zones.”
Kofman does not expect Russia to join the military campaign alongside Assad’s forces, however (this remains to be seen).
“Furthermore, it now places Washington before a difficult question: What happens if Russia conducts air strikes against U.S. backed rebel forces that may be protected by U.S. airpower over a ‘safe zone?’ Moscow’s goal is to present this scenario as a potential problem to push Washington to reconsider its policies in Syria.”
The White House seems to have been caught “blind-sided” by the Russian deployment, Kofman writes, and he notes that the US has already agreed to military-to-military discussions and that Russia is pushing for an Obama-Putin meeting in New York. Even if that doesn’t happen,
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