Kerry Confirms Shift in U.S. Policy on Syria and Assad

In an interview with CNN that aired over the last two days, Secretary of State John Kerry made clear that the U.S. and the U.S.-led coalition has changed its policy and is no longer demanding the immediate ouster of Bashar Assad from power.  Kerry acknowledged that the original statements, “way back when,” by the Obama Administration, had called for Assad’s removal as a first step.  That is no longer the policy, and now, the U.S. has concluded that it is necessary to negotiate a transition over time, to avoid “a vacuum or an implosion” as happened in Iraq after the U.S. invasion and overthrow of Saddam Hussein.

“We need to have an orderly transition, a managed transition, so that you don’t have a fear for retribution, loss of life, revenge,” Kerry said, urging a leadership change over a “reasonable period of time.”

Kerry made clear in the CNN interview that he sees the Russian engagement in Syria as an “opportunity” so long as the Russians recognize that Sunni forces in the region must have a stake in the transition.

On Tuesday, in an interview with MSNBC, Kerry made clear that he envisions a future Syria that is unified and secular. Referring to the U.S.-Russian efforts to reach a political transition in Syria, Kerry said, “So surely in those very fundamental principles in which we could agree, we should be able to find common ground.”

In a profile of Kerry’s diplomatic efforts on Syria, the New York Times noted yesterday that Kerry kept up a constant dialogue with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, even when President Obama had totally shut off all communications channels to Russian President Putin.  Often, the Times reported, Kerry would speak to Lavrov for hours at a time, sometimes several times a day.

U.S. intelligence sources noted this week that the face-to- face meeting between Putin and Obama on Monday in New York was the fruit of the persistent Kerry-Lavrov efforts, which took on a new importance after Kerry’s visit to Sochi in the spring to meet Putin and Lavrov.  In June Putin placed a call to President Obama, which further opened the prospects and led directly to the New York talks and the diplomatic and military channels that have now been reopened.