Our Only Hope for Escaping Nuclear War

A moderator at the last Fox News Republican debate, questioning Donald Trump on his feelings for Vladimir Putin, showed a video where Trump says, “I think I’d get along with Vladimir Putin.” Putin has described Trump as “an outstanding and talented personality,” calling him “a brilliant and talented person, without a doubt.” In response, Trump has said, “It is always a great honor to be so nicely complimented by a man so highly respected within his own country and beyond.” Adding, “And [in my dealings with Putin] I don’t think you’d be having the kind of problems that you’re having right now.” [1]

This video displays the above “Trump-Putin ’16 Make Tyranny Great Again!” poster. It is an ad that Republican Presidential candidate John Kasich had made and paid for. (2) It mirrors the Republican Establishment’s view that Trump is too friendly with the Russian President.

Donald Trump is the only presidential candidate, Republican or Democratic, who is not part of the political Establishment. Since he self-funds his campaign, he is not beholden to any special interest groups, especially ones in the military-industrial complex. A real estate-focused businessman and TV reality show star, he has no stake in the neoconservative effort to subdue Russia and have Washington dominate the world. Trump views U.S. wars of intervention and occupation around the world, all in countries that pose no threat to American citizens, a waste of taxpayer money. He is the only candidate in either party who will question the cost and legitimacy of our commitment to Cold War relics like NATO and continuing to station troops in N. Korea; our country’s involvement in religious civil wars in the Middle East and overthrowing and killing secular dictators there it doesn’t like (Hussein and Kaddafi); and our threatening Russia by encouraging its neighboring states of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Ukraine, and Georgia to join NATO and give them weapons and military guarantees to defend them.

U.S. exploits are leading America to the brink of war with Russia—and possibly, given its actions in the S. China Sea, to war with China as well. Putin has said, “The U.S. wants to subdue Russia, to solve U.S. problems at Russia’s expense. No one in history ever managed to do this to Russia and no one ever will.” [3] More ominously, in a speech delivered at the Valdai International Discussion Club in Sochi, he states, “Russia does not wish for chaos to spread, does not want war, and has no intention of starting one. However, today Russia sees the outbreak of war as almost inevitable, is prepared for it, and is continuing to prepare for it…” [4] Is World War III inevitable?

History, it turns out, goes in cycles. (It is not a linear progression as some would argue.) The earth rotates around the sun every 365.25 days. Human history has an 80-year cycle, roughly equal to the lifespan of a person. Like the four seasons of the earth’s solar cycle, the historical cycle (or “Saeculum”) has four Turnings, which William Strauss and Neil Howe have unraveled and defined. [5]

As the table below shows, we are currently in the Fourth Turning of the Fourth Cycle of American history. (This table is taken from my article “World War Redux: The Fourth Turning Fourth Time Around,” published on LRC in 2014, where more information, with source links can be found to these Cycles and Turnings. [6])

The current Crisis Turn in America’s Millennial Cycle began in 2008, set off by the Lehman Brothers collapse and onset of the Global Financial Crisis. Anticipated to last until 2026 when a new Cycle will start, we have 10 years to go until we get through it. If the current (2008-2026?) Crisis Turn follows the course set in America’s three previous Fourth Turnings, there will be a World War III.  Like with the Great Depression that preceded World War II, the ongoing Global Financial Crisis is setting the stage for World War III.

In the American Revolution (Revolutionary Cycle Fourth Turning), there were 25,000 military and civilian deaths. In the Civil War, there were 750,000 military and civilian deaths. In World War II (Great Power Cycle Fourth Turning), 85,000,000 people died.

Regarding this Millennial Cycle Fourth Turning, Strauss and Howe (they nailed its onset in their 1997 book!) write:

“The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it.” [5]

World War III will, in all likelihood, turn nuclear. The Nuclear weapons stockpiled today are 50 times more powerful than the two atomic bombs the U.S. dropped on Japan in 1945. In the next war they could cause 1,000,000,000 (one billion) military and civilian deaths, or more.

It may happen sooner than we think. In a February 18, 2016, report titled “Risking Nuclear War for Al Qaeda?,” Robert Parry writes:

“A source close to Russian President Vladimir Putin told me that the Russians have warned Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that Moscow is prepared to use tactical nuclear weapons if necessary to save their [20,000] troops in the face of a [500,000-man] Turkish-Saudi onslaught. Since Turkey is a member of NATO, any such conflict could quickly escalate into a full-scale nuclear confrontation.” [7]

Donald Trump as President is best suited to make it possible for humanity to escape a WW III nuclear holocaust. He is the only presidential candidate that can do this. (But one hopes that during the campaign he is not influenced by neocons like John Bolton.) David Stockman puts it this way:

“…A nation tumbling into financial and fiscal crisis will welcome the War Party purge that Trump would surely undertake. He didn’t allow the self-serving busy-bodies and fools who inhabit the Council on Foreign Relations to dupe him into believing the Putin is a horrible threat; or that the real estate on the eastern edge of the non-state of the Ukraine, which has always been either a de jure or de facto part of Russia, was any of our business. Likewise, he has gotten it totally right with respect to the sectarian and tribal wars of Syria and Iraq and Hillary’s reckless destruction of a stable regime in Libya.” [8]

America must adopt a non-interventionist foreign policy, as advocated by the nation’s founders, to avoid a nuclear WW III in this Fourth Turning.

Despite the risks, the outcome of this Millennial Cycle Fourth Turning could be peaceful and positive. Strauss and Howe write:

“America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis: all they suggest is the timing and dimension.”

The next eight years will be a very crucial time in human history.

References

1 — http://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-russia-president-vladimir-putin/

2 – http://trump-putin2016.com/

3 – “Opening the Gates to World War III,” Paul Craig Roberts.

4 – http://usmcinfantrybrothers.com/2015/10/29/world-war-iii-in-the-making/ Speech delivered October 24, 2014.

5 – The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy: What the cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny. 1997. William Strauss and Neil Howe.

6 – “World War Redux: The Fourth Turning Fourth Time Around,” Donald W. Miller, Jr., Lewrockwell.com. September 16, 2014

7 – https://consortiumnews.com/2016/02/18/risking-nuclear-war-for-al-qaeda/

8 – “The Trumpster Sends the GOP/Neocon Establishment to the Dumpster,” David Stockman. Lewrockwell.com. March 4, 2016.

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