The Kristol-French Amateur Hour

The news that the NeverTrump effort, self-identified as the Renegade Party, is considering National Review writer David French as their potential anti-Trump and (allegedly) anti-Hillary independent candidate has mostly been met with a combination of bewilderment and disdain. What little enthusiasm there has been is clearly feigned. French is a man of not unimpressive credentials, but he has virtually no name recognition at the national level. He is not even particularly well known in conservative circles. He is a known quantity primarily to a fairly tight circle of anti-Trump activists who hover around National Review and possibly an equal number of Donald Trump supporters who dislike National Review and disagree with its crusade against Trump. So in essence, he is a meaningful name primarily only to those who really like where he stands on Trump and those who really do not.

After Bill Kristol got the political world buzzing with his tweet that there would be an “impressive” candidate to challenge Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton with a “real chance,” the revelation that that candidate was virtual unknown David French was greeted with a collective “David who?”

Twitter has not been kind, to say the least, to Mr. French. I wonder if he really realized what he was in for. He has been wrecked by Trump supporters, Republicans interested in unity, leftists who do not like his social conservatism, and the typical collection of agents of snark and condescension. Those who have expressed support for his candidacy are the same type of people who are probably familiar with his anti-Trump work, movement conservative ideologues who are motivated by the supposed sanctity of the message and/or sophistication signalers who really want you to know that they could not possibly bring themselves to vote for a yahoo like Trump.

Needless to say, the David French campaign is not going anywhere, and that is if he even decides to run. At this point, I am simply morbidly curious about how a group of people who are supposed to be so smart and sophisticated could manage to pull off such a massively incompetent campaign launch. It is a train wreck I cannot look away from. The more that comes out about the French trial balloon, the more bizarre it becomes.

Since it became likely that Trump would be the Republican nominee, there has been a loosely organized group calling themselves Conservatives Against Trump who have attempted, among other possible strategies, to recruit a neocon/movement con approved independent to challenge Trump and Clinton. Bill Kristol has been a prominent part of this effort, but not the whole of it. Apparently, the decision to put French forward as the possible candidate was not made by the group as a whole. Radio talk show host and Fox New commentator Erick Erickson, another prominent and vocal member of the group, made it clear on his radio show that he was only made aware of the possible candidacy of French about 24 hours before it went public and was clearly attempting to distance himself from the decision. Fellow National Review writer and Trump critic, Jonah Goldberg, indicated on Fox News that he too was only recently made aware of a possible run by French.

This is startlingly inept. How difficult is it to have a conference call to discuss with the group that will be most responsible for talking up any anti-Trump campaign who you are planning on putting forward? One wonders if this was freelancing or even a power play on the part of Kristol and possibly French.

In addition, Kristol’s Twitter tease was very poorly executed. I am not an expert on marketing or campaign strategy, but even I have been around the process enough to know that in the game of politics you want to undersell and over perform, not oversell and underperform. If you expect 50 people, book a room that seats 40, not one that seats 200. After Kristol teased an “impressive” candidate with a “real chance” and then produced David French, it was a perfect set up for mockery. It came off more like a Monty Python skit than a well-planned campaign launch. Maybe Donald Trump sells more when he talks up his steaks or his water or his golf courses as the best ever, but Kristol is not selling steaks. He is trying to launch a long-shot campaign.

Instead, Kristol should have teased “an honorable candidate who is sound on the issues, a real contrast to Trump” or something like that. Instead of saying he has a “real chance,” say he is “an underdog” and “a fighter.” Then have all the Conservatives Against Trump crew and other sympathetic parties on board to really talk French up once he is announced. Catching your own team by surprise is monumental incompetence.

Inexplicably, Kristol was away in Israel unavailable to the media when the French story broke. And strangely, Kristol, French and the Renegade Party account have maintained virtual radio silence on Twitter since the announcement. They should all be banging out tweets every few minutes to take advantage of the news cycle. Perhaps most inexcusable of all, the “Neither Trump nor Hillary” website is under construction. Instead of a patriotic themed picture of French with his wife, kids, and the family dog, along with prominently displayed donate, volunteer and merchandise links, there is a “Coming Soon” announcement. Unbelievable.

NeverTrump has from the start had unrealistic expectations regarding its candidate recruitment efforts. You cannot blame them for trying, but the possibility that they were going to entice a sitting politician or some other “big name” with a lot to lose was always remote. Of course, they didn’t ask me, but my thought has always been that once they quickly exhausted the most likely big name possibilities – Ben Sasse, Mitt Romney, Tom Coburn, etc. – then they should have focused on finding the highest profile pundit they could talk into their suicide mission. Ideological missions like theirs are the purview of ideologues, not real world politicians, which is why they should have focused on the pundit class.

Due to ballot access issues, time was of the essence for them, and instead of waiting around hoping for the unlikely event that Romney would change his mind, they needed to find the highest profile candidate they could, put on a happy face, and get busy talking him up and collecting ballot access signatures. A pundit is not as credible a candidate to average Americans as a sitting politician, but independent and third party efforts are not about getting the candidate elected to office, with few exceptions, and even Kristol has admitted that their plan is to throw the election to the House of Representatives. Independent and third party efforts are about making a point and monkey wrenching the process.

Now, NeverTrump has ended up with a pundit, the likely outcome all along, but a relatively low profile one. Heck, the afore mentioned Erickson or Goldberg would have made a significantly bigger splash than French. And what I have wondered all along, often aloud, is why does not Kristol put himself forward if his loud mouth is so concerned about Trump. He is over thirty-five. He is a natural born citizen. Step up Bill, and take one for the team. Instead, he wants some other poor sap to do his dirty work.

I am left wondering if Kristol is really that arrogant? naïve? clueless? incompetent? The potential French campaign reveal has been amateur hour in all respects. So much so that I have been tempted at times to wonder if it is all just one elaborate psyop/troll intended to get Trump supporters to go off so they can then say, “See, we told you that Trump supporters are all big meanies.” If so, the being away in Israel unavailable for comment was a nice touch. But I think the more likely explanation is that Kristol the Younger is just not really that clever and has been riding the coattails of his father his whole pontificating career. You know, Occam’s razor and all that.

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