Donald Trump has made trade agreements a central issue in this presidential election, declaring trade treaties such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as unfair and subject to cancellation or renegotiation. Setting aside the issue of whether presidents…
It is now painfully obvious that Ben Bernanke blew it big-time by not raising rates three years ago when the economy and markets enjoyed tailwinds. The former Federal Reserve chairperson, who has claimed the mantle of savior of the global…
While all eyes on fixated on global stock markets as the measure of “prosperity” and “growth” (or is it hubris?), the larger force at work beneath the dovish cooing of central bankers is foreign exchange: the relative value of nations’…
Globalization (a.k.a. “free” trade) has become an election issue for two reasons: many voters blame “free” trade with China and other nations for job losses in the U.S. and rising income inequality as globalization’s “winners” in the U.S. outpace its…
A great many insightful commentators have made the case for why the Fed shouldn’t raise rates this month–or indeed, any other month. The basic idea is that the Fed blew it by waiting until the economy is weakening to raise…
One result of the global dependence on central bank interventions is a unhealthy fixation on the slightest changes in those interventions, oops I meant policies. Since the slightest pull-back in central bank inflation of asset bubbles could spell doom for the…
The long-term consequences of primary FX trends may be entirely unintended. Indulge me two “I told you so’s”: 1. That the U.S. dollar (USD) would rise a lot, confounding those busily digging the dollar’s grave 2. That the stronger dollar…